> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.darkmatter.rdytobash.tech/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Rtp Validation

> Rtp Validation — Dark Matter Protocol on Robinhood Chain.

# RTP & Simulation Validation

To validate the shipped game math, a Monte Carlo harness ran the **production engines
verbatim** (lifted from `serverless/entropy.js`, `serverless/crash.js`,
`serverless/lootbox.js`) — 10,000 bets per Entropy entry, 0.01 ETH bets, a virtually
funded 50 ETH treasury per game. Source: `scripts/sim-entropy-rtp.cjs`.

## Results — 10,000 bets each

| Game | Measured RTP | vs theory | Biggest hit | Hit paid N× | Treasury 50 ETH → | Worst dip |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mines 3 | 99.00% | ±0.00% | 1.12× | 9,028× | 49.00 | 48.91 |
| Mines 10 | 98.67% | −0.33% | 1.65× | 6,046× | 48.67 | 48.42 |
| Limbo 2× | 98.30% | −0.70% | 2× | 4,914× | 48.30 | 47.78 |
| Limbo 10× | 101.40% | +2.40% | 10× | \~1,000× | 51.40 | 49.13 |
| Limbo 100× | 89.00% | −10.00% | 100x | 89× | 39.00 | 34.42 |
| Plinko low | 98.88% | −0.12% | 10× | 7× | 48.88 | 48.74 |
| Plinko med | 100.19% | +1.19% | 33× | 5× | 50.19 | 49.50 |
| Plinko high | 101.64% | +2.64% | 170× | 5× | 51.64 | 48.21 |
| Keno 4 | 95.38% | −3.62% | 59.5× | 17× | 45.38 | 45.18 |
| Keno 10 | 91.15% | −7.85% | 237.9× | 4× | 41.15 | 38.57 |
| Crash 2× | 95.46% | −0.54% | 2× | \~4,770× | 45.46 | 45.42 |
| Crash 10× | 95.70% | −0.30% | 10× | 957× | 45.70 | 45.55 |
| Lootbox | \~33.5%\* | by design | 27.8× | 6× | 44.01 | 44.01 |

**No treasury busted** at 50 ETH with 0.01 bets. Worst drawdown was −31%
(Limbo 100× — the swingiest entry).

\* The lootbox ETH-RTP is low **by design**: 94.4% of boxes pay DUST only (reactor
fuel, zero treasury cost). Real treasury cost = the stock tiers ≈ 0.0006 ETH/box
average → the house keeps ≈ 0.0003 of each 0.0009 ETH box. The dust economy absorbs
the rest. See [Lootboxes](../casino/lootbox.md).

## Aggregate house view (130k bets)

```
Total staked : 1,209.00 ETH      Total paid: 1,167.77 ETH
Blended RTP  : 96.59%  (excluding lootbox: 97.1%)
House kept   : 41.23 ETH         Treasury: 50 → 91.23 ETH
```

## RTP progression insights

* **Low-variance games converge fast and cleanly.** Mines 3 walks 97.66% → 99.00% in
  a near-straight line; Crash 2× locks onto \~95.5% by bet 3,000. Exactly the 99%/96%
  theory.
* **High-variance games swing hard in finite samples.** Limbo 100× sat at **50% RTP
  for 2,000 bets** (zero 100× hits — pure tail luck) before clawing to 89%. Keno 10
  opened at **118.5%** (an early top-tier hit) then drifted to 91%.
* **Tails need volume.** Expect \~100k–1M bets for the extreme-multiplier entries to
  converge inside ±2%. This is expected statistics, not a math problem — the engines
  are exactly on their designed edges.
* The `floor2` rounding in the engines shaves a hair below theory on small-multiplier
  configs (visible on Mines).

## What this means operationally

| Question | Answer from the sim |
| - | - |
| Can a hot streak bankrupt the house? | Not at these bet caps — worst drawdown −31% with a 5,000× bankroll-to-bet ratio |
| Is the edge real? | Blended 3.4% hold over 130k bets vs 1–4% theoretical per game |
| Are payouts correct? | Harness used the shipped engines verbatim — any payout bug would reproduce here |
| Vault sizing rule of thumb | ≥ 3,000× max bet per game keeps ruin probability negligible at these variances |

Re-run it yourself:

```bash theme={null}
node scripts/sim-entropy-rtp.cjs
```

Next: [API Reference](api.md).


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